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Feb 26, 2014
02/14
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BLOOMBERG
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they can cut off the energy to ukraine. if putin does not want to use leverage to support secession is him, he can use financial levers over the medium-term to make ukraine the losers. >> what is the possibility of civil war? >> i think it is low in the near term. today, the most interesting news to me has come out of crimea where the russians have a base and naval infantry division. there were riots -- demonstrations that looked a little like riots. they were not violent. they forced the town council there to get rid of their mayor and except a russian citizen as their mayor. they also flew some russian flags. that shows their disposition. the crimean people, the majority of them have no interest in being a part of ukraine. if the russians want to stir up trouble, that's where they can do it. in the near-term, i don't think the russians will push that. russia makes a lot of money out of transiting energy through ukraine and if they cannot do that, that undermines the russians. i think putin might accept the tactical loss b
they can cut off the energy to ukraine. if putin does not want to use leverage to support secession is him, he can use financial levers over the medium-term to make ukraine the losers. >> what is the possibility of civil war? >> i think it is low in the near term. today, the most interesting news to me has come out of crimea where the russians have a base and naval infantry division. there were riots -- demonstrations that looked a little like riots. they were not violent. they...
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Mar 5, 2014
03/14
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BLOOMBERG
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he has no cap she has those -- he has those levers, particularly energy. this has been about for the russian economy. the currency has fallen. the stock market is down. there was a reaction to this that may affect putin's economy. but i mention one other thing? here is this beautiful and large country called ukraine. suppose ukraine finally after failing in 2004 get it right -- democracy, gets rid of corruption, the economy is improving, and it is there of the border for russia. i think it makes him nervous if there were a success in ukraine in bringing about a free and open society and economic success, which is not the case in russia. >> what you do if the sanctions fail? what do you do it the pressure fails and he continues with his own ambitious ideas of expanding russia within his own borders and spears of influence? >> go back to georgia in nato. if you tried something like that say with one area that has a significant russian popularity -- population, he would be attacking nato. that would be an entirely different set of circumstances. i have no ill
he has no cap she has those -- he has those levers, particularly energy. this has been about for the russian economy. the currency has fallen. the stock market is down. there was a reaction to this that may affect putin's economy. but i mention one other thing? here is this beautiful and large country called ukraine. suppose ukraine finally after failing in 2004 get it right -- democracy, gets rid of corruption, the economy is improving, and it is there of the border for russia. i think it...
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Mar 6, 2014
03/14
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BLOOMBERG
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they still get 25% of their energy from russia. he is sitting there thinking that he probably holds the better hand here. >> do you believe he will do better hand? >> frankly, based on what i am hearing other western europe, and the reluctance of the europeans to embrace tough sanctions, i think right now he does. >> is the europeans are not willing to go forward with sanctions, are we in a bad place? >> i think we are. >> you've also suggested that some of your fellow republicans should tone down their rhetoric. >> this is a serious crisis that the west is facing. i spent most of my life in the government at a time when immediate crises, people came together and they were supportive of the president. there was the old line that politics stopped at the water's edge. i think people right now, while the president is trying to get the allies on board facing off with vladimir putin, having people call him weak or criticizing him is not helpful. we need to help achieve the objectives that the united states needs to achieve in this situa
they still get 25% of their energy from russia. he is sitting there thinking that he probably holds the better hand here. >> do you believe he will do better hand? >> frankly, based on what i am hearing other western europe, and the reluctance of the europeans to embrace tough sanctions, i think right now he does. >> is the europeans are not willing to go forward with sanctions, are we in a bad place? >> i think we are. >> you've also suggested that some of your...
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Mar 6, 2014
03/14
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ukraine would get a major alternative source of energy. putin basically killed the whole idea of energy independence for ukraine. not many people talk about this. there are american companies that have interest in the shale gas. a big political gamble. ukraine, there is long-term destabilization. >> what does the west have to do to stop this. >> there are lots of things at stake for the west. there are big challenges. now is really happening that ukraine is 10 times bigger than georgia. here, he willtop go further. website an american that publishes something based on u.s. diplomats from 2008. the preciseting time of the crimea operation. i hate to predict it this way. but my next prediction is that go intots oil, he will the baltic states, even if they are members of nato. this guy wants to restore the soviet union. it is a distraction of post-cold war in europe. in one of the main beneficiaries of this work. major challenges for long-term stability. there are lots of things that need to be done and cannot be done to stop it. people are f
ukraine would get a major alternative source of energy. putin basically killed the whole idea of energy independence for ukraine. not many people talk about this. there are american companies that have interest in the shale gas. a big political gamble. ukraine, there is long-term destabilization. >> what does the west have to do to stop this. >> there are lots of things at stake for the west. there are big challenges. now is really happening that ukraine is 10 times bigger than...
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110
Mar 5, 2014
03/14
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KQED
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by grabbing crimea, putin basically killed the whole idea of energy in ukraine but also for energy to europe. not many people talk about it but that's one to have the secrets behind the whole operation and the american companies with shell gas are in trouble now. so it's a political gamble for president putin. he's up to long-term. >> charlie: what does the west have to do to stop that? >> that's the big challenge. what's happening now is that the ukraine is bigger than georgia. now if he does not come here, he will go further. you know, there is an american web site that published something based on correspondence of u.s. diplomats meetings with me. the problem is that if he gets away with crimea and ukraine, he'll go for baltic, even if they're members of nato. he will try to annex territories inside georgia and crimea. the whole distraction to have the post cold war and post-secondary war is over in europe and they are one of the main beneficiaries. so the u.s. is really at stake. one of the challenges for the u.s. and anywhere in the world an it cannot be neglected. a lot of thing
by grabbing crimea, putin basically killed the whole idea of energy in ukraine but also for energy to europe. not many people talk about it but that's one to have the secrets behind the whole operation and the american companies with shell gas are in trouble now. so it's a political gamble for president putin. he's up to long-term. >> charlie: what does the west have to do to stop that? >> that's the big challenge. what's happening now is that the ukraine is bigger than georgia. now...
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Mar 4, 2014
03/14
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there are many, many things, but particularly energy. but, you know, this has been bad for the russian economy. the value of their currency has fallen, the stock market is down. there is a negative reaction to this, too, that may effect putin's economy. and could i mention one other aspect of this is putin also sees -- here's this beautiful and large and magnificent country called ukraine. suppose ukraine, finally, after failing in 2004, gets it right, democracy, gets rid of corruption, economy is improving, and it's right there on the border of russia. so i think it makes him very nervous, if there were a success in ukraine in bringing about a free and open society and economic success, which is not the case in russia, as you know, which is propped up by energy. >> charlie: should we revisit the question of georgia and nato? >> yes. i really believe that we should sponsor the inclusion of georgia into nato. every few weeks the russians move the fence a little further into georgian territory with impunity. there was a peace agreement orc
there are many, many things, but particularly energy. but, you know, this has been bad for the russian economy. the value of their currency has fallen, the stock market is down. there is a negative reaction to this, too, that may effect putin's economy. and could i mention one other aspect of this is putin also sees -- here's this beautiful and large and magnificent country called ukraine. suppose ukraine, finally, after failing in 2004, gets it right, democracy, gets rid of corruption, economy...
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Mar 6, 2014
03/14
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he had persuaded yanukovych with money and oil prices, energy prices. >> absolutely. he then saw a great strategic opportunity, not just to arrest ukraine going into europe for russia. and i would think for most russians. ukraine in europe goes against the history and who they are. so it would be a preference of any government to keep ukraine from throwing in its future with the west. >> bruce: so then they overthrew yanukovych and he fled to russia. >> then in the previous weeks i think putin undoubtedly interprets the demonstrations that took place in kiev which started when yanukovych was moving as instigated by the west and supported by the west. >> rose: no doubt he believes that. >> i have no question he believes that. >> rose: that somehow we were behind the west and europe, u.s. and europe. >> i have no question he believes that. and i think he probably believes that having the high point in connection with the olympics was a deliberate attempt to humiliate him. >> rose: after the success of the olympics? >> the olympic paralyzed him. he couldn't participate i
he had persuaded yanukovych with money and oil prices, energy prices. >> absolutely. he then saw a great strategic opportunity, not just to arrest ukraine going into europe for russia. and i would think for most russians. ukraine in europe goes against the history and who they are. so it would be a preference of any government to keep ukraine from throwing in its future with the west. >> bruce: so then they overthrew yanukovych and he fled to russia. >> then in the previous...